Office of Institutional Research and Planning

One Harpst Street • Arcata, California 95521-8299 • 707.826.5489 • www.humboldt.edu/irp

Given the CSU Graduation Initiative and the drive to increase graduation rates by 15% for underrepresented minority (URM) students, and 12% for all students by 2015, it is imperative that we measure retention rates and progress on a yearly basis and look for discernable patterns in working towards achieving the goals set forth in the Graduation Initiative Proposal.

The CSU first began to collect new race/ethnicity data according to Federal Guidelines, which allowed students to self-identify two or more races for students entering in fall 2009. Historically, HSU had a large number of students who did not identify their race by selecting unknown or decline to state, sometimes upwards of 27%. With the implementation of the new race/ethnicity data collection for students entering Fall 2009, and with the race resurvey to collect data on all continuing students this past spring 2010 semester, we have considerably lowered the unknown/decline to state category to 11%, and can better track the progress of all students going forward. We look forward to increased reporting ability and consequently will be better able to track the progress of all students at HSU in the future.

Measuring overall retention rates is important in monitoring trends in longitudinal data. It also allows us to see the success of initiatives implemented in student success and retention, yet it is equally as important to disaggregate retention data by gender as well as race and ethnicity, so we have a better idea as to which students are succeeding and which students are not.

This report will discuss the one, two and three-year retention rates of new students, and transfer students, who began on or before Fall 2008, Fall 2007 and Fall 2006 respectively.

The data document the retention of first-time freshmen student cohorts. The first-time, full-time freshmen student cohort is composed of first-time-to-college undergraduates who are matriculated. Thus, exchange students, high-school concurrent, and non-matriculated students are excluded. Similarly, transfer student cohorts exclude non-matriculated students. All counts are based on the students enrolled at the official census date in the 4th week of classes. First-time freshmen may place into higher levels based on their accumulated unit count, but are indicated as first-time to attend college and first-time to attend HSU.

Caution is urged in interpreting small sample sizes in some of the data. Because of many instances of small samples, the percentages may not be accurate measures for year-to-year comparisons, therefore five-year averages are provided.

One-Year Retention Rates of First-Time Freshmen Cohorts
(Fall 2000-Fall 2009)

Although there have been increases and decreases in the one-year retention rates over the past eight years, the most recent data show a three-year longitudinal decline in one-year retention rates, with a 2% increase in fall 2009. From a high of 76% in the Fall 2005 cohort, declining to 72% for the fall 2008 cohort, and increasing to 74% in Fall 2009, one-year retention rates were steadily decreasing over the past three years until this year. The recent increase in retention shows movement in the right direction and hope that this trend will continue. Some trends in the data become more apparent as we disaggregate the data by gender, race and ethnicity. The overall one-year retention rates for first-time freshmen cohorts that began on or before fall 2009 is indicated below. The five-year average from fall 2005-fall 2009 is provided.

	Fall 00	Fall 01	Fall 02	Fall 03	Fall 04	Fall 05	Fall 06	Fall 07	Fall 08	Fall 09	5 Year Avg
Initial Cohort	769	724	836	852	760	813	966	1038	1168	1344	1065
Returned 1-year later	583	553	603	647	538	618	720	758	840	996	786
Percent Returning	76%	76%	72%	76%	71%	76%	75%	73%	72%	74%	74%

First-Time Freshmen Cohort Retention by Gender (Fall 2000-Fall 2009)

Male students traditionally underperform females in their rate of retention, but significant declines in male retention the past few years has led to a troubling reduction in the overall retention rate at HSU. The female retention rate has been consistently higher and more stable than the male retention rate during the same time period, but this year we saw a 5% increase in male retention, which narrowed the gap between males and females. This issue needs to be further researched, especially since research indicates that this is a national trend. Five-year averages from fall 2005-fall 2009 are provided.

Sex	Fall 00	Fall 01	Fall 02	Fall 03	Fall 04	Fall 05	Fall 06	Fall 07	Fall 08	Fall 09	5 yr avg
Female	460	413	504	479	428	460	549	551	661	745	593
Male	309	311	332	373	332	353	417	487	507	599	473
% Returning
Female	77%	77%	76%	80%	74%	79%	76%	76%	77%	76%	77%
Male	75%	75%	67%	71%	67%	72%	73%	69%	66%	71%	70%

First-Time Freshmen One-Year Retention by Aggregated Categories of Race/Ethnicity (Fall 2000-Fall 2009)

When we look at retention rates disaggregated by overall racial/ethnic categories, we can discern some trends. The White and underrepresented minority (URM) students perform similarly, but upon further racial/ethnic disaggregation, we see noticeable differences.

First-time Freshmen One-Year Retention by Overall Race/Ethnicity

Ethnicity	Fall 00	Fall 01	Fall 02	Fall 03	Fall 04	Fall 05	Fall 06	Fall 07	Fall 08	Fall 09*	5 Yr Avg
Asian	20	20	34	45	37	29	36	39	35	56	39
URM	129	128	167	186	146	202	225	239	251	442	272
Unknown	116	112	145	104	129	126	175	222	243	29	159
White	504	463	490	513	439	436	516	506	599	817	575
% Returning
Asian	75%	75%	79%	84%	76%	62%	75%	64%	74%	77%	70%
URM	76%	66%	68%	72%	71%	80%	70%	69%	71%	73%	73%
Unknown	72%	75%	67%	78%	65%	73%	77%	68%	63%	72%	71%
White	77%	80%	74%	76%	72%	75%	75%	77%	74%	74%	75%

*The URM category includes two or more races in fall 2009

Many of the disaggregated categories by race/ethnicity are quite small, therefore making the data for first-time freshmen by race and ethnicity difficult to interpret. The small sample size leads to large yearly variations. The data is provided to give insight into general retention by race and ethnicity and to begin a dialogue on URM student retention by identifying trends in the data. Native American students are retained the least, with a five-year retention average of 58%, far below the average for all other groups of students at 74%. The five-year average reflects data from fall 2005-fall 2009 and helps aggregate the data so that it represents a larger longitudinal data source.

First-time Freshmen One-Year Retention by Disaggregated Race/Ethnicity

Ethnicity	Fall 00	Fall 01	Fall 02	Fall 03	Fall 04	Fall 05	Fall 06	Fall 07	Fall 08	Fall 09*	5 Yr Avg
1-Am Indian	17	13	19	18	12	15	22	25	25	11	20
2-Black	36	41	39	57	47	51	66	58	54	44	55
3-Latino	71	66	107	107	78	135	132	145	165	258	167
4-Asian	20	20	34	45	37	29	36	39	35	56	39
5-Pac Isl	5	8	2	4	9	1	5	11	7	11	7
6-Two or more										118
7-White	504	463	490	513	439	436	516	506	599	817	575
8-Unknown	116	112	145	104	129	126	175	222	243	29	159
% Returning
Am Indian	76%	77%	53%	67%	58%	80%	59%	48%	60%	45%	58%
2-Black	78%	61%	72%	68%	81%	82%	58%	71%	67%	70%	70%
3-Latino	75%	70%	69%	76%	69%	79%	77%	72%	75%	77%	76%
4-Asian	75%	75%	79%	84%	76%	62%	75%	64%	74%	77%	70%
5-Pac Isl	80%	50%	100%	50%	56%	100%	100%	73%	57%	36%	73%
6-Two or more										72%	*
7-White	77%	80%	74%	76%	72%	75%	75%	77%	74%	74%	75%
8-Unknown	72%	75%	67%	78%	65%	73%	77%	68%	63%	72%	71%

* Two or more race data was not collected prior to Fall 2009
Two-Year Retention Rates for First-Time Freshmen Cohorts
(Fall 1999-Fall 2008)

Overall, two-year retention rates have varied from a low of 56% in fall 2004 to a high of 63% in fall 2005. The average two-year retention rate aggregated over five years is about 60%. It is interesting to note that the data show an alternating pattern of yearly increases and decreases, although there is no apparent underlying cause for such cyclical behavior, with the most recent year experiencing a 1% increase. The two-year retention rates become more problematic as we disaggregate the data.

	Fall 99	Fall 00	Fall 01	Fall 02	Fall 03	Fall 04	Fall 05	Fall 06	Fall 07	Fall 08	5 yr avg
Initial Cohort	751	769	724	836	852	760	813	966	1038	1168	949
Returned 2-years later	468	469	447	487	532	423	509	569	629	720	570
Percent Returning	62%	61%	62%	58%	62%	56%	63%	59%	61%	62%	60%

Two-Year Retention Rates for First-Time Freshmen Cohorts by Gender
(Fall 1999-Fall 2008)

Two-year retention rates by gender show a continuing gap between males and females. Although the gap narrows periodically, it is expanded for the fall 2007 and fall 2008 cohorts. The five-year average shows a 7% gap between males and females.

Sex	Fall 99	Fall 00	Fall 01	Fall 02	Fall 03	Fall 04	Fall 05	Fall 06	Fall 07	Fall 08	5 yr avg
Female	438	460	413	504	479	428	460	549	551	661	530
Male	313	309	311	332	373	332	353	417	487	507	419
% Returning
Female	63%	61%	62%	60%	67%	57%	67%	60%	64%	65%	63%
Male	61%	61%	61%	55%	57%	53%	57%	58%	56%	58%	56%

Two-year Retention Rates for First-Time Freshmen by Aggregated Categories of Race/Ethnicity (Fall 1999-Fall 2008)

Disaggregating the data by race/ethnic groups shows that unknown students perform much lower than White students; and Asian and URM students perform similarly, but considerably below White students.

Ethnicity	Fall 99	Fall 00	Fall 01	Fall 02	Fall 03	Fall 04	Fall 05	Fall 06	Fall 07	Fall 08	5 Yr Avg
Asian	27	20	20	34	45	37	29	36	39	35	35
URM	112	129	128	167	186	146	202	225	239	251	213
Unknown	112	116	112	145	104	129	126	175	222	243	179
White	499	504	463	490	513	439	436	516	506	599	499
% Returning
Asian	81%	60%	55%	56%	69%	51%	48%	69%	51%	66%	57%
URM	63%	61%	57%	47%	65%	51%	65%	52%	54%	63%	57%
Unknown	55%	62%	63%	57%	58%	56%	57%	51%	51%	55%	54%
White	63%	61%	63%	62%	62%	57%	63%	63%	67%	63%	63%

Two-year Retention Rates for First-Time Freshmen by Overall Race/Ethnicity

(Fall 1999-Fall 2008)

Noting that the size of some of the disaggregated cohorts is quite small, five-year averages are used to draw comparisons. The lowest two-year retention rates by five-year averages are for American Indians at 45%, Blacks at 52%, Unknown students at 54%, Asians at 57%, then Latino students at 61%. These are all lower than two-year retention rates for White students at 63%, and Pacific Islander students at 66%. The Pacific Islander population is so small that caution needs to be excercised when interpreting the data.

Ethnicity	Fall 99	Fall 00	Fall 01	Fall 02	Fall 03	Fall 04	Fall 05	Fall 06	Fall 07	Fall 08	5 Yr Avg
1-Am Indian	15	17	13	19	18	12	15	22	25	25	20
2-Black	33	36	41	39	57	47	51	66	58	54	55
3-Latino	59	71	66	107	107	78	135	132	145	165	131
4-Asian	27	20	20	34	45	37	29	36	39	35	35
5-Pac Isl	5	5	8	2	4	9	1	5	11	7	7
7-White	499	504	463	490	513	439	436	516	506	599	499
8-Unknown	112	116	112	145	104	129	126	175	222	243	179
% Returning
Am Indian	47%	59%	69%	47%	56%	42%	67%	32%	40%	44%	45%
2-Black	76%	56%	54%	59%	63%	53%	55%	39%	59%	52%	52%
3-Latino	59%	65%	59%	43%	68%	53%	68%	61%	53%	70%	61%
4-Asian	81%	60%	55%	56%	69%	51%	48%	69%	51%	66%	57%
5-Pac Isl	60%	60%	38%	50%	50%	44%	100%	80%	64%	43%	66%
7-White	63%	61%	63%	62%	62%	57%	63%	63%	67%	63%	63%
8-Unknown	55%	62%	63%	57%	58%	56%	57%	51%	51%	55%	54%

Three-Year Retention Rates for First-Time Freshmen Cohorts
(Fall 1998-Fall 2007)

Three-year retention rates have not increased past 58% over the past ten years, and remain at 55% ten years later. The alternating pattern found in the two-year retention data continues here. In order to improve graduation rates, it is imperative that we find ways to increase three-year retention rates.

	Fall 98	Fall 99	Fall 00	Fall 01	Fall 02	Fall 03	Fall 04	Fall 05	Fall 06	Fall 07	5 Yr Avg
Initial Cohort	731	751	769	724	836	852	760	813	966	1038	886
Returned 3-years later	378	435	427	414	440	475	391	452	528	570	483
Percent Returning	52%	58%	56%	57%	53%	56%	51%	56%	55%	55%	55%

Three-year Retention Rates for First-Time Freshmen by Gender
(Fall 1998-Fall 2007)

Over the last ten years it has been consistently harder to retain males than females: in the last cohort of fall 2007, male three-year retention rates dropped, leaving an 8% gap between males and females and a 6% gap in the five-year average.

Sex	Fall 98	Fall 99	Fall 00	Fall 01	Fall 02	Fall 03	Fall 04	Fall 05	Fall 06	Fall 07	5 yr Avg
Female	405	438	460	413	504	479	428	460	549	551	493
Male	326	313	309	311	332	373	332	353	417	487	392
% Returning
Female	54%	59%	57%	57%	53%	59%	53%	60%	55%	59%	57%
Male	49%	57%	53%	57%	52%	52%	49%	50%	54%	51%	51%

Three-year Retention Rates for First-Time Freshmen by Aggregated Categories of Race/Ethnicity (Fall 1998-Fall 2007)

URM and unknown students have lower three-year retention rates, 51% and 44% respectively, than White or Asian students, 58% and 54%, in the five year averages from fall 2001-fall 2005.

Ethnicity	Fall 98	Fall 99	Fall 00	Fall 01	Fall 02	Fall 03	Fall 04	Fall 05	Fall 06	Fall 07	5 yr Avg
Asian	28	27	20	20	34	45	37	29	36	39	37
URM	108	112	129	128	167	186	146	202	225	239	200
Unknown	135	112	116	112	145	104	129	126	175	222	151
White	459	499	504	463	490	513	439	436	516	506	482
% Returning
Asian	54%	67%	60%	35%	56%	58%	51%	52%	61%	49%	54%
URM	51%	56%	52%	47%	41%	58%	46%	53%	47%	51%	51%
Unknown	57%	51%	54%	59%	50%	42%	45%	45%	43%	43%	44%
White	50%	60%	57%	61%	57%	58%	55%	58%	60%	61%	58%

Three-year Retention Rates for First-Time Freshmen by Disaggregated Categories of Race/Ethnicity (Fall 1998-Fall 2007)

Keeping in mind the small cohort size, it is apparent, when disaggregating the three-year retention rates by race and ethnicity, that some groups are having a much harder time being retained. In the five-year averages, American Indian, Black and Unknown students have the lowest three-year retention rates, at 39%, 44% and 49%. Asian and Latino students have lower three-year retention rates, at 54%, than White students at 58%.

Ethnicity	Fall 98	Fall 99	Fall 00	Fall 01	Fall 02	Fall 03	Fall 04	Fall 05	Fall 06	Fall 07	5 yr Avg
1-Am Indian	16	15	17	13	19	18	12	15	22	25	18
2-Black	20	33	36	41	39	57	47	51	66	58	56
3-Latino	70	59	71	66	107	107	78	135	132	145	119
4-Asian	28	27	20	20	34	45	37	29	36	39	37
5-Pac Isl	2	5	5	8	2	4	9	1	5	11	6
7-White	459	499	504	463	490	513	439	436	516	506	482
8-Unknown	135	112	116	112	145	104	129	126	175	222	151
% Returning
1-Am Indian	38%	47%	53%	62%	26%	44%	33%	40%	36%	40%	39%
2-Black	65%	70%	50%	46%	49%	58%	47%	53%	30%	55%	49%
3-Latino	51%	51%	54%	45%	40%	61%	47%	55%	55%	52%	54%
4-Asian	54%	67%	60%	35%	56%	58%	51%	52%	61%	49%	54%
5-Pac Isl	0%	60%	40%	38%	100%	25%	44%	100%	80%	55%	61%
7-White	50%	60%	57%	61%	57%	58%	55%	58%	60%	61%	58%
8-Unknown	57%	51%

Office of Institutional Research and Planning One Harpst Street • Arcata, California 95521-8299 • 707.826.5489 • www.humboldt.edu/irp

Introduction

One-Year Retention Rates of First-Time Freshmen Cohorts (Fall 2000-Fall 2009)